All posts by Jon Doble

NL Central Preview: Right Field

The final position player preview before I hit the pitching staffs of each team. Right field is another corner outfield position where you prefer power, but in addition to the power bat you’d like a power arm to mow down guys trying to take an extra base because of the distance between right field and third base.

The top-3 right fielders in the NL Central could go any way you choose. Homer totals are close, batting averages are close, fielding numbers are close. It’s also another position that has some exciting young talent and at least one wiley veteran trying to prove himself once again.

6. Matt Diaz, Pittsburgh (.250, 7 HR, 31 RBI in 84 games for Atlanta)
Matt Diaz was signed by Pittsburgh to platoon in right field this season with Garrett Jones. Yes, the same Jones I had penciled in as Pittsburgh’s first baseman. However, Lyle Overbay is now the team’s starting first baseman. Jones’ lack luster 2010 would have only put him a position higher than Diaz and he got 2 points for Pittsburgh at first base, the same number as Overbay would have, so it’s a moot point. Still Diaz alone has the potential to be better than Berkman or Fukudome in right field, but I’m working off of established numbers for the most part.

5. Lance Berkman, St. Louis (.248, 14 HR, 58 RBI in 122 games for Houston and NY Yankees)
The veteran of the mix, but he’s still trying to prove himself just like these young guys. For one, Berkman is coming off a horrendous season that saw him traded from his longtime home in Houston to the Yankees for the playoff run. Berkman usually hits much closer to .300 and that’s what the Cardinals are banking on with his signing. Berkman has the potential to be the best right fielder in the division, but he also has the potential to be the worst, and hopefully we’ll get something right up the middle. Also, hopefully he remembers how to wield the glove as he will return to the outfield for the first time since 2007.

4. Kosuke Fukudome, Chicago (.263, 13 HR, 44 RBI in 130 games)
One of the best Japanese hitters to come to the major leagues, Fukudome has been a disappointment for the Cubs. He was the guy that stopped Hideki Matsui’s triple crown run in 2002 with his ability to hit for average and power, however he has really shown neither in the major leagues. Still, 2010 was his best season in the major leagues and he has proven himself as the best defensive right fielder in the NL Central with his .995 fielding percentage. It is a contract year for Fukudome who will have to prove whether he belongs in the MLB or will he return to Japan?

3. Hunter Pence, Houston (.282, 25 HR, 91 RBI in 156 games)
In his fourth season in the bigs, Hunter Pence has been consistent. He’s hit 25 home runs in each of the last three seasons. He’s hit .282 in the last two seasons. What are the odds he can do it again, right? For Houston, Pence might be their top offensive threat in 2011 unless Carlos Lee rebounds from a tough 2010. Still, it’s a sign of trouble for Houston that this is their biggest offensive threat. They have a long way to go in order to rebuild the team to the World Series contender it was in the mid-2000s.

2. Jay Bruce, Cincinnati (.281, 25 HR, 70 RBI in 148 games)
Jay Bruce’s claim to fame might be his six straight hits to start his major league career or the fact that he is one of five players to hit a home run to clinch a playoff spot. But 2010 was a coming out party for Bruce, who may have seen a drop in his power output with the additional games he played, but began to hit, improving his batting average almost 60 points over the 2009 season. The best part about Jay Bruce for Cincinnati, he’s still only 23 years old.

1. Corey Hart, Milwaukee (.283, 31 HR, 102 RBI in 145 games)
Corey Hart‘s claim to fame might be that he and the other Corey Hart both played for Nashville in 2005 in Milwaukee’s minor league system. Talk about confusing, eh? Anyway, another home grown success story for Milwaukee as Hart was drafted in the 11th round by Milwaukee in 2000. He may have taken six years of development before he stuck in the majors, but he has proven himself a quality player, especially after posting a career year in 2010. And Hart just got a three year extension too. He is the second oldest starting player for Milwaukee as he will turn 29 in March, just two months younger than new acquisition Yuniesky Betancourt.

At the end of the position player previews, here are your NL Central rankings:

Milwaukee — 36 pts
Cincinnati — 34 pts
St. Louis — 32 pts
Chicago — 26 pts
Pittsburgh — 24 pts
Houston — 16 pts

Now we’ll address the top-3 (or 4, depending on how much information I can find) starters for each team, their bullpen as a whole, and their closer situation.

NL Central Preview: Center Field

In the seventh entry in my NL Central Preview, I move on to center field. Easily one of my favorite positions, center fielders are typically speed guys with good defense and the ability to hit, not necessarily having anĀ abundanceĀ of power. Or at least that’s the type of player that comes to my mind.

However, there are several center fielders who dispute my stereotype, much like the Cardinals’ current center fielder Colby Rasmus and Cincinnati’s Drew Stubbs. Both are guys with power.

6. Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee (.247, 5 HR, 24 RBI in 97 games)
Gomez was the Brewers’ center fielder after they traded Jim Edmonds to Cincinnati last year. While in the past he’s done a lot with his glove in the outfield, he had a horrible 2010 posting a .970 fielding percentage in a position that’s mostly just catching fly balls. The Brewers resigned him and traded his closest competition, Lorenzo Cain, to Kansas City in the Zach Grienke trade.

5. Michael Bourn, Houston (.265, 2 HR, 38 RBI in 141 games)
I was a bit surprised with Bourn’s statistics as I thought he was a better player. However, he experienced a bit of a down year from his 2009 stats. He is still the best defending center fielder in the division with his .992 fielding percentage and a 2.78 range. If he had some power, he’d be a little higher.

4. Marlon Byrd, Chicago (.293, 12 HR, 66 RBI in 152 games)
The most expensive member of this crop makes just $5.5 million this year. He had the best average among NL Central center fielders, along with the best fielding percentage. Still, for his performance, he is an extremely good value for the Cubs. Especially when you factor in what the Cubs are overpaying for some of their other players.

3. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.286, 16 HR, 56 RBI in 154 games)
McCutchen is a very good all around center fielder for Pittsburgh, and he’s young. Just one more young, talented Pirates player. He showed some slight improvement from his rookie year in 2009 as well. Apparently, at age 23 a group of his similar players is Matt Kemp, Jeremy Hermida, Shawn Green, and Carlos Beltran according to Baseball-Reference. That can mean good things for Pittsburgh if he keeps taking steps forward.

2. Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.276, 23 HR, 66 RBI in 144 games)
Chalk me up as one who has been surprised this offseason that Colby Rasmus is still a Cardinal. His issues in the clubhouse are well known, but hopefully they will improve their relationship and Rasmus will begin to mature as a ballplayer. Rasmus has shown a bit of his offensive abilities over the last year, but his defense took a step back last season. His numbers were very poor on defense this season, well down from his 2009 season, and at times he looks like he isn’t focusing. He has all the talents to be among the top-3 center fielders in baseball, but he has yet to put it all together. For Cardinals fans that’s frustrating and exciting all at the same time. Frustrating because we have to watch it, but exciting because the idea that when he does put it all together you have to wonder how good can he be?

1. Drew Stubbs, Cincinnati (.255, 22 HR, 77 RBI in 150 games)
Stubbs got the everyday job last season and hasn’t really looked back, hitting 30 homers in his 194 games. He and Colby were neck and neck for the top spot, each showing offensive ability last year. Colby might have more potential, but Stubbs played better last year on both sides of the ball which is something I value over pure offensive performance.

Now, the point totals after seven installments of the NL Central Preview:

Milwaukee — 30 pts
St. Louis — 30 pts
Cincinnati — 29 pts
Chicago — 23 pts
Pittsburgh — 23 pts
Houston — 12 pts

It’s neck and neck at the top, but next up will be Right Fielders and you can look for that on Monday.

Cardinals add Nick Punto

The Cardinals have agreed to terms with free agent infielder Nick Punto on a 1 year deal that I’ve seen is for $750,000.

The 33 year old Punto has spent the last 7 years of his career with the Minnesota Twins in a utility type role, making starts around the infield. He’s a switch hitter, which should greatly help his playing time in a Tony LaRussa system.

Last season he hit .238 with 1 HR in 288 plate appearances for Minnesota. His career line is .247 average and a .321 on base percentage.

This is the first real move of the offseason that I like. He isn’t anything impressive with the bat, but he’s solid. He has defensive experience around the infield and in the outfield.

Joe Strauss said on Twitter that he sees it as bad news for Daniel Descalso. That’s true, but hopefully it also means bad news for Tyler Greene. Sorry, I’ve just not been impressed with Greene by anything. He struggles at the plate and he’s not that great in the field.

I would definitely slot Punto in as the primary utility guy. He also has experience in center field, so you could see him starting out there too against lefties, perhaps? As a switch hitter he is a pretty even split. against lefties he’s hit .256 with 2 HR in 883 plate appearances versus .242 with 11 HR in 1913 plate appearances against righties. Perhaps even more hopeful is that he hits .268 with a .333 on base percentage in games with a left handed starter. I expect him to definitely see time at both second base and center field this season. (At least I hope to)

NL Central Preview: Shortstop

On to shortstops! Or backwards, rather.

As of now, gone are the likes of Brendan Ryan and Orlando Cabrera. With Ryan gone, the question of who is the best defensive short stop in the NL Central is back open and the answer may really surprised you. So will the other name at the top.

Since I’m rolling backwards at this point, I won’t waste any time and jump right into my look at the NL Central short stops.

6. Tommy Manzella, Houston (.225, 1 HR, 21 RBI in 83 games)
Manzella is Houston’s short stop of the future, but after that year who can blame Houston for looking elsewhere? Their management has said that they’d be looking at alternatives at shortstop as it was centered out as one position that definitely needed to improve over last year’s. However, to this point nobody has been signed or traded for leaving Manzella and the guy he shared time with last season, Angel Sanchez, to split time.

5. Starlin Castro, Chicago (.300, 3 HR, 41 RBI in 125 games)
Perhaps I’m underrating Castro a bit, but the fact that he was the worst defensive shortstop in the NL Central last season drops him below the next guy. Castro is an impressive young talent who should improve in his second year in the big leagues. And at just 20 years old, he has quite a ways to go.

4. Paul Janish, Cincinnati (.260, 5 HR, 25 RBI in 82 games)
Janish served in a more utility type role last season for the Reds, but played most of his games at short stop. Cincinnati also acquired veteran Edgar Renteria in the offseason too, but if they are smart the Reds will start Janish. Janish will likely hit better than Renteria while he was the best fielding shortstop in the NL Central last season. With that combination, I think he has to be their starter and it should be a solid season as far as shortstops stack up.

3. Ryan Theriot, St. Louis (.270, 2 HR, 29 RBI in 150 games for Chicago and Los Angeles)
Ryan Theriot might actually be the second best defensive shortstop in the division. That honestly shocked me. Granted his 2010 numbers include just 29 games at shortstop as he played mostly second base, which is by far a better defensive position for him. However, he is still around the top when you use his major league career stats. Combined with the hope that he will bounce back a bit on offense when he gets put back to the position he’s more comfortable in, he should exceed last season’s performances.

2. Ronny Cedeno, Pittsburgh (.256, 8 HR, 38 RBI in 139 games)
Cedeno signed a one year deal to remain in Pittsburgh, which was an interesting move considering the big market on middle infielders this season. However, who could have seen that coming. His offense stacks him up second best as it is head and shoulders above the performance of his divisional peers.

1. Yuniesky Betancourt, Milwaukee (.259, 16 HR, 78 RBI in 151 games for Kansas City)
He was the “other guy” in the Zach Grienke trade, but he had a good enough season to qualify him as the best short stop in the NL Central. Betancourt had a career year last year, so the question will be if he can repeat this performance or if he’ll slide back towards the .273, 9 HR career average. And that sub-.300 OBP scares me too. Even at that point, he’s still the best shortstop in the NL Central.

Now with 6 of 8 offensive positions complete, here is the projected standings:

Milwaukee — 29 pts
St. Louis — 25 pts
Cincinnati — 23 pts
Chicago — 20 pts
Pittsburgh — 19 pts
Houston — 10 pts

The look at Center Field should find it’s way up this weekend as we move on with the series.

NL Central Preview: Left Field

On to the outfield! We’ll start in left field since in position scoring numbers that one comes before the other outfield positions.

After looking at all the potentials, this might actually be the first one that writes itself. There’s a pretty clear order to NL Central Left Fielders, especially since Matt Holliday looks to return there in 2011 despite some rumors that he would switch outfield corners.

Well, I won’t waste any time getting into it. After all, corner outfields are all about pure hitting, defense really doesn’t play into it much.

6. Jose Tabata, Pittsburgh (.299, 4 HR, 35 RBI in 102 games)
For the 22 year old Tabata, he may not be the best option in left field but it doesn’t seem like there’s going to be much of a battle for the position. He’s young and seems to be able to hit for average which is definitely to his benefit. He was also, by far, the best defensive outfielder of the bunch with a .995 fielding% and the only one to have a range over 2 with his range factor of 2.26. The Pirates did sign Matt Diaz, but everything I can find indicates that Diaz will battle for position in right field, not left. That means Tabata is their player and yet another young player with potential for the Pirates. I really think they could be a sleeper if they click.

5. Johnny Gomes, Cincinnati (.266, 18 HR, 86 RBI in 148 games)
After hitting 20 homers in just 98 games in 2009, there was definitely hope that Gomes would provide more power in 2010. Gomes played 50 games more and hit two less homers as he enters a contact year. He is far from a core player on Cincinnati, so he has plenty of opportunity to pitch in without the pressure to perform being on him. But he’s still clearly only the fifth best left fielder in the division.

4. Carlos Lee, Houston (.246, 24 HR, 89 RBI in 157 games)
The Astros tried to shed themselves of their big name, high salary players in 2010 and they achieved 2/3rds of that by trading Lance Berkman to the Yankees and Roy Oswalt to the Phillies. Meanwhile, the player affectionately referred to as “El Caballo” stayed. At 34 and making $19 million, it’s pretty clear why he would be tough to move. He’s also the worst defensive outfielder in the division with his .969 fielding percentage and 1.55 range factor. After Berkman’s departure, he did play some first base, but by all accounts, first base will be given to young Brett Wallace to get his chance. Needless to say, Lee may start the season in Houston, but trade rumors will circulate around him all year as he has two years left on his deal.

3. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago (.258, 24 HR, 79 RBI in 147 games)
Alfonso is far from the player he was when he signed his big 8 year, $136 million deal with the Cubs that still has four seasons remaining on it. He went from posting a 40/40 season in 2006 to stealing just 14 bases over the last two seasons. He also only hit 44 home runs combined those two years. Clearly Soriano is still trending on the decline, but last season was a brief bump. With the Cubs in disarray, things don’t seem to be getting any better for them.

2. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.304, 25 HR, 103 RBI in 157 games)
Braun might be considered a man without a position and a horrible defensive outfielder, but that may not be the whole story. His .990 fielding percentage was tops among NL Central left fielders and his 1.93 range factor was second. He came up as a third baseman and was horrible defensively. Since moving to the outfield, he has done a pretty good job. Sure he may blow a few routine plays now and then, but so will anyone who is making the move to a new position and learning on the job. He and Matt Holliday were the only close battle in my mind, and they were exceptionally similar last year.

1. Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.312, 28 HR, 103 RBI in 158 games)
I’ll say this. I expected a .289, 19 HR, 89 RBI year out of Matt Holliday. His non-Coors Field numbers through his career told a very different story than the Matt Holliday we got this year, so he far exceeded my expectations though he did gain a reputation for not being very clutch this year as he seemingly struggled with men on base leading me to say that he is a much better #2 or 3 hitter in front of Pujols than #4 hitter behind Pujols. After all, how do you protect Albert Pujols? Let him protect you, right? Holliday put together a solid season and earned his $17 million. Certainly we would have liked playoffs, but you can’t win them all right?

So let’s tally up the points again, shall we? With 5 of the 8 positions down, the current NL Central projections stand as:

Milwaukee — 23 pts
St. Louis — 21 pts
Cincinnati — 20 pts
Chicago — 18 pts
Pittsburgh — 14 pts
Houston — 9 pts

Writer’s Note: I did realize after finishing this run down that I skipped short stop! Maybe my Ryan Theriot thoughts will surprise some of you after reading most of my other things about short stops and defense in St. Louis. Then again, maybe not. Anyway, that will be the next one that I move on to.

Tyler Greene’s stock rising?

Tony LaRussa talked to the media today at the Cardinals Winter Warmup and indicated that the team has no true backup outfielder to Colby Rasmus and that he might look to an infielder to fill that role. Skip Schumaker would be the obvious choice, right? He’s right handed. A good hitter. Excellent outfield defender…

No, it’s Tyler Greene.

I honestly can’t wait for that lineup. An outfielder playing second base and an infielder playing center field. I would laugh, but I really don’t find that very funny.

The 27 year old Greene has had cups of coffee at the major league level over the past two seasons. In 92 career major league games, Greene is hitting .221 with 4 HR. In those 92 games, Greene has played 52 of them at short stop, 45 more among the other infield positions, and 1 in center field.

That is, by the way, Greene’s only outfield appearance in his professional career. He has made 539 minor league appearances, all but 10 of which are at short stop. At short stop, he’s also a worse defender than Ryan Theriot, who is a below average short stop himself.

Greene is a career .264 hitter in the minor leagues and that number is inflated by his last two seasons in Memphis, where he’s been a very solid 4-A player.

At 27, Greene is far from a prospect anymore, yet he hardly has any time in the major leagues. He’s also shown no ability to reliably hit pitching at the major league level. So we’ve got a career .221 hitter who is a subpar defensive player at every infield position set to be our primary infield utility player. This screams a problem at so many levels.

Fans will tell you, and so will management, depth was the primary issue that this team failed last year. We had a great starting lineup, but a combination of injury combined with major slumps by our middle infielders left us exposed with no viable backups. As spring training is set to open in less than a month, that same issue is glaring us right in the face again.

Nobody that we’ve signed for the bench inspires confidence in me with their ability to take over the position for two weeks and perform. The outfield looks decent with Jon Jay and Allen Craig. The infield is a disaster as we have no decent replacement for any of the four infield positions or at catcher. If Pujols, Schumaker, Theriot, Freese, or Molina go down for any major length of time, this team is screwed.

Meanwhile, Tony LaRussa tells us that Skip Schumaker is a quality second baseman. If by quality, he actually means the worst second baseman in major league baseball but the guy can hit for average, then he’s right. Moving Schumaker to center and Rasmus to a corner outfield spot would have made far more sense this year. Ryan at shortstop and Theriot at second (where he is excellent defensively). You save more runs on defense with that alignment.

With the current lineup and projected roster? The offense will need to perform or this season will be ugly. We’ll be watching Schumaker and Theriot butcher balls up the middle and Tyler Greene butchering plays in the outfield where he has virtually zero experience. I have more centerfield experience than Tyler Greene. I wonder if I could hit .220? Hmm. Anyone have John Mozeliak’s phone number?