Tag Archives: Carlos Martinez

Notebook: November 21, 2011

Something I’m going to try to do every Monday morning through the offseason is come through and just recap what I think the top Cardinals stories, rumors, and notes of the previous week were and a quick take on them. There were some interesting things said in the last week that I’ve been itching to address but they aren’t juicy enough to give a full fledged take on them. And with that we will get going.

Pujols to re-sign with Cardinals on Friday?

Well, Friday came and went and the tweet by St. Louis radio personality J.C. Corcoran was proven to be false. But this is a guy that has inside connections and called the LaRussa retirement from his sources. I have also heard that things are really close to happening. Corcoran speculated Saturday that he will likely sign soon after returning from his two week vacation in Hawaii.

The day it came out, Wednesday, I’d just said that I doubted by previous assessment of Pujols re-signing with the Cardinals sometime after New Years. With the lack of a market developing for his services, delay was only going to frustrate Cardinals fans more. Miami made a lackluster offer that proved to be a simple PR move, leaving the Cardinals as the only viable offer on the table. I felt with this new information, Albert would make a quick decision to get it out of the way. The first week of December makes a lot of sense. I certainly think it will be well before Christmas now.

The advantage for the Cardinals is that they are the only franchise for whom it makes sense to offer a long-term contract to a player who will be 32 when the season starts. I can’t be the only team to have run the statistical analyses that I have to determine that an All Star caliber player usually peaks at age 30 before beginning to decline. With Pujols already looking like he’s trending downward, that’s a concern for teams who don’t want to be on the hook for 9 years of him. That keeps many teams away.

Mozeliak envisions Descalso, Greene starting in middle infield

Talking about 2012, John Mozeliak said that he envisions Daniel Descalso starting at second base for the Cardinals and “would have no problem” with Tyler Greene starting at short stop.

Descalso made 343 of his 425 minor league appearances at second base, so you know he can handle the position. However, he’s played just 18 games there in the major leagues under Tony LaRussa. He ended the season hitting .264/.334/.353 which is very good on average. However, as a left handed hitter, he has a huge split as he hits just .190 against left handed pitchers and .280 against right handed pitchers. So the team might be looking to pick up a right handed second baseman to spell Descalso until he proves himself against left handed pitching.

Tyler Greene might break out underneath someone other than Tony LaRussa. But I have to think that this will be his final opportunity with the Cardinals. His 3 option years are up, meaning he’d be exposed to waivers if he doesn’t make the roster. In his major league career he has struggled to find his stroke, hitting .218/.307/.313 in 150 games over the last 3 years. Despite playing in just 58 games this season, he did lead the Cardinals with 11 stolen bases, making up 20% of the team’s total.

This provides me some hope that Rafael Furcal isn’t going to be returning to the Cardinals. Furcal has 8 teams in on him, 4 of them as a second baseman. He also wants a multi-year deal, so with that many potential suitors he is likely to find it. Furcal is an injury risk and hit very poorly down the stretch. I’d wager that if Greene was given a full year he could outperform Furcal’s .255/.316/.418 numbers next season. (Still, I’d like Clint Barmes, but he’s close to a deal with Pittsburgh)

Three players added to Cardinals’ 40 man roster

With the Rule 5 Draft approaching, the Cardinals protected three additional players and brought the total number of players on their 40 man roster to 36. On Saturday the Cardinals revealed that they had added Sam Freeman, Chuck Fick, and Adam Ottavino to the roster.

Freeman, 24, posted a 3.16 ERA over 68 1/3 relief innings between Palm Beach and Springfield this season and was a mid-season Texas League All Star, posting a 3.03 ERA in 59 innings in Springfield. Freeman missed the 2010 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He is playing this winter in the Venezuelan Winter League and has posted a 0.82 ERA over 11 relief innings there. He has been a reliever all the way through the minor leagues and depending on what the Cardinals do with the bullpen, could be considered for the opportunity to be the big league club’s second left handed reliever.

Fick, 26, posted a 2.30 ERA over 70 1/3 relief innings for Memphis last season. I don’t know much about Fick, but from what I’ve read he’s supposed to be a better version of Brad Thompson, a name familiar to Cardinals fans over the last few years.

Ottavino, who will be 26 tomorrow, was a first round pick for the Cardinals in 2006. He was 7-8 with a 4.85 ERA for Memphis this season as a starter. He made his MLB debut last year for the Cardinals making 3 starts and 2 relief appearances and posting an 8.46 ERA. As a first round draft pick, Ottavino will be protected and should be given at least one more opportunity in St. Louis. However, will guys like Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez behind him and Lance Lynn ahead of him, his window of opportunity to claim a spot with the Cardinals is closing.

That leaves the team’s roster at 36 as they still need to sign Albert Pujols. They have left room to sign players or make a claim in December 8th’s Rule 5 draft if they need to. If they do claim a player in the major league portion of the draft, they will need to keep him on the team’s major league roster all season.

Happy Birthday, Stan Musial

And finally, a happy 91st birthday to Stan Musial.

Jerry’s 2011 End of Year Cards Top 7 Prospects

The UCB is doing a Top 7 Prospect listing so I thought I would throw in my 2 cents.  The Cards prospects have taken a big step forward this year with so many prospects taking a big step forward and some jumping from the lower minors to AA and beyond.  Narrowing down to the Top 7 wasn’t easy and to me there can be an major argument for many players from #5-7.  I will talk about my ranking philosophy, explain my Tier system and then get into my prospect ranking.

 Prospect Ranking Philosophy

I have always been someone that values upside over readiness but not to the extreme.  There is a lot to be said for producing in the upper minors.  I take a look at all the tools, performance, video, respected analyst and scout opinions and then my personal “gut” feeling.  I ranked CMart my #2 prospect over Cox coming into the season and have spoken extremely highly of Taveras for a year and a half now.  I have gotten a lot of criticism for those 2 things but I stick with my guns.

Prospect Tier System

I use a Bird(s) system to explain my Prospect Tiers and the Cards overall system.  I started doing this near the end of last year to give a fair representation to prospects acrossed organizations and to look back at Cards prospects from past years to have an easier system to compare them to the recent crop of prospects.

5 Birds – The elite of prospects. These prospects will be stars in the bigs AND have enough body of work in the minors to justify the top rating. From a category perspective this would be a rare rating if the system had quite a few 5 Birds Rating. Basically the elite of elite in a category.
4 Birds – Prospects that will have a solid body of work in the minors and will be above avg players in the bigs OR prospects with the upside of a 5 Birds Rating but not enough service time in the minors to justify the rating. From a category perspective this would be a category with a number of 4 and 5 Birds Ratings players. It would require a balance of depth and stardom.
3 Birds – Prospects that will be a regular in the bigs but won’t be a significant piece to the ball club. These prospects won’t be All-Stars nor will they be top of the rotation or middle of the order players. From a category perspective this would be a middle of the road category with few 4-5 Birds Rating players and plenty of 2-3 Birds Ratings.
2 Birds – Prospects that will be role players in the bigs. These prospects will bounce around from AAA to the bigs and most likely will play for many franchises over the years if they are fortunate enough to stick around. From a category perspective this would be many role/utility type players in the category with little to no star power.
1 Bird – Prospects that will be career minor leagues and may get a cup of coffee in the bigs. From a category perspective this is the ultimate insult. If you get a 1 Bird in any category you basically have very few players in the category that could even be role players in the bigs.

2011 Cards End of Year Top 7 Prospects

Now to what everyone is waiting for…the always talked about prospect ranking!  After the name of the prospect in parenthesis was my beginning of the year ranking and after his position is his Bird Tier Rating.  I also excluded any prospect that was promoted prior to September (Sanchez, Lynn, etc) even though technically many still qualify.  Let’s jump right in…

1)  Shelby Miller (1)- RHP – 5 Birds
Miller is just about everything you want in a pitching prospect…you have the size and frame, you have the mentality, you have the FB, you have the makings of a very good to great CB and CH and you have the results to back it up.  The knocks on Miller are his focus (some off the field troubles in-season) and his use of secondary stuff.  I am not worried about his secondary stuff as I have seen enough video that shows he just needs to continue to use and refine those pitches and I have no doubt it will happen.  His upside is a true ACE and anyone that knows me I am bullish on using that term.  Many consider him a Top 5 prospect at this point and there is a good argument that he is the best SP prospect in baseball.
2)  Carlos Martinez (2) – RHP – 4.5Birds
Martinez is on everyone’s radar after the year he had.  I was bullish on him being my #2 prospect coming into the season as his command was known to be pin point for his age and it didn’t hurt he consistently hit upper 90′s even late in games…but he hadn’t pitched an inning on American soil.  Well he came over to start the year and showed by everyone should be excited about him.  His FB and command were as advertised and his breaking ball shows flashes of at least a plus pitch.  His arm angle is ideal for a CH and he showed better consistency as the year went along.  His delivery seems fairly smooth (I am no pitching mechanics/delivery expert by any means) and is arm action doesn’t show any red flags.  I try to hold my expectations down just a touch so I see upside as a legit #1 starter but not quite an ACE (and yes…I think there is a difference).
3)  Oscar Taveras (15) – OF – 4 Birds
As I was high on Taveras for the past year and a half I also knew he was still very young and raw.  He grew up quickly this year (though he had a few hamstring injuries this year) as he is currently trying to lead the River Bandits to the Midwest League Championship.  When you hit .386 with an OBP of .444 for the year people start talking a lot about you.  He doesn’t walk much though he worked on that in the 2nd half of the season and did improve on strike zone judgement that will only help him as he progresses through the season.  His hit tool is off the charts for his age.  He seems to square up every ball he hits.  His power is quite there yet but is projectable to be a 20 HR guy or better.  His speed is there though he isn’t a burner.  He can handle all 3 OF positions with good arm strength and if he is able to stay in CF that just increases his overall value.  I see a middle of the order bat that plays good D if everything works out.
4)  Zack Cox (3) – 3B – 4 Birds
First off it is not “Zach” it is “Zack”…for some reason I see many people spelling his name wrong.  I was not sold on him coming into the year as a 4 Birds rating but he showed why he should be upgraded to one with his effort this year between Palm Beach and Springfield.  He is not your prototypical 3B that can mash but I do see more power coming as he continues to rise through the system (look at his 2nd half for evidence).  Another knock on him is the defensive ability at 3B…which is a very valid point but I have seen Brett Wallace and Zack Cox at 3B multiple times…and why they get the same comparison is beyond me.  Cox is a better 3B than Wallace was on his best days…and thats not saying its a guarantee he sticks at 3B either.  He is a very smart player and hitter and knows how to use the whole field.  He seems to always take a little time to adjust to each level but once he gets its he starts hitting, hitting and hitting some more.  His power is a hot topic but he has shown he has that power tucked away somewhere but he is more of a 15 HR guy than a 30 HR guy in the future.  I see an above avg overall player that will contribute in the middle of the order somewhere.
5)  Matt Adams (NR) – 1B – 3.5 Birds
Adams sure did who everyone that he can hit for avg and power this year.  He had a great year and is starting to get a little bit of National recognition as a prospect.  His fate as a Cardinal will be with Pujols’ contact situation this offseason as he is only a 1B.  As a 1B you get pressure to be an elite hitter to be competitive just at your own position.  I am not sure I see Adams as an elite hitter once he arrives but a .290ish hitter that will hit between 25-30 HR’s is realistic.  That is quite productive.
6)  Jordan Swagerty (19) – RHP – 3.5 Birds
I will admit that I never saw Swagerty as a starter but what he showed this year I am starting to believe he could be and my ranking of him represents that.  And don’t be misled by his move to the bullpen later in the year as that was a move to limit his innings.  He has a plus FB and CB and should start the year in Springfield in 2012 which could put him in the mix for a call up late in 2013 if all goes well.  His upside is a #2 starter or a closer type reliever.  Everything will depend on how his CH continues to develop but count me in as buying into the hype as a starter.
7)  Tyrell Jenkins (6) – RHP – 3.5 Birds
I ranked Jenkins quite high on my beginning of the year rankings as his upside is quite exciting.  He is super athletic (could be the most athletic pitching in all of the minors) and is quite raw.  At JC this year he did show why we should be excited about him and signs that he is learning to pitch (which is a good sign as he was a million sport star in HS so he never had the opportunity to focus on any one sport).  He had a 4:1 K to BB ratio which is GREAT to see to start his career and he had 1 K/IP.  He has a hard sinking FB, SL and CH in his arsenal and reports say his secondary pitches are developing faster than expected.  Still a project and won’t be ready until late 2014 at best.  His upside is a very good #2 SP.
Just missed list:  Ryan Jackson (SS), Kolten Wong (2B) and Trevor Rosenthal (RHP)

Cardinals Young Pups Report – August

The Cards newest member to the Organization is their 2nd Round Pick Charlie Tilson who signed at the deadline on August 15th for well over two times the recommended slot.  He is one of the more exciting picks we made in the 2011 Draft.  Welcome to the Cards Organization young man!

As the Minor League seasons are coming down the home stretch for 2011 Cards fans have to be very pleased with our system overall.  We have had a very few major disappointments and so many guys that have taken a huge step forward.  For the ranking nerds it is highly likely that the Cards system will be a Top 10 system going into 2012 which is a huge jump forward.  Let’s highlight a few of the guys on both ends of the spectrum.

The Bad:

1)  Seth Blair – RHP – The biggest disappointment in the 2011 season has to be Seth Blair and his inability to show any level of control of his pitches.  As a high draft pick you are have some many eyes on you at all times.  Blair has just over 74IP and a astounding 61BB, 11WP and 14HBP to go along with his over 5 ERA.  If you want to have a glass is half full approach then you will look at his 67K’s and convince yourself that with all the BB, WP and HBP it is remarkable he only has a 5 ERA.  Reality is he has had a TERRIBLE year.

2)  Adam Reifer – RHP – Reifer had a breakthrough 2010 campaign and showing why so many Cards prospect nerds were so high on his stuff.  Unfortunately he only had the opportunity to pitch 6+ innings in 2011 before injuring his knee and having season ending surgery.  In a year our bullpen REALLY needed some help it would have been great to have him as an option mid-year.

3)  Deryk Hooker – RHP – After a dynamite 2010 where Hooker had an ERA of just under 3 and over a K/IP he follows that up with a terrible 2011 season.  He has given up way too many hits and given up too many free passes.  That combine has lead to just under a 5.50 ERA and only 1 win.  To his credit injuries have played a part in his bad season.  I had him as being right behind Shelby Miller in the predictions of the Cards Minor League Pitcher of the Year award for 2011…DOH!

Continue reading

MLB Trade Deadline Decisions

It’s this time of year that trade rumors are flying left and right and rarely do any of them get executed. GM’s all across baseball are working endless hours with their top deputies to inquire on any player they feel would help their club and gauge the asking price. So with a week left before the deadline what are the Cardinal’s needs? Who should be be targeting? What players/prospects should be off limits? I will try to break down this very complex process to define the Cards biggest needs and players we should be targeting.

Cards Needs

Anyone who watches the Cards on a regular basis can identify our weaknesses. We need to upgrade our rotation, bullpen and SS. My gut feeling says the Cards have identified our rotation as the biggest need so we can move McClellan back to the bullpen which kills 2 birds with one stone. McClellan is very effective against lefties as well so he could be used when needed as a lefty specialist (as weird as that sounds). If we can’t find a fit that is within a price we are willing to pay for rotation help we will certainly find a bullpen arm to provide stability and depth. The last and hardest area to address is SS. Theriot’s offense was making up for his defensive woes early in the year. Well his offensive is suffering of late and today’s game is the reason why we need someone that can sure up the defensive side.

The Untouchables

1) Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez and Oscar Taveras – The first 2 are names that most everyone knows about and its been publicized that we are not going to trade them. Taveras is another guy I see as an untouchable product. By far our best upside offensive prospect. He has 5 legit tools and is tearing up opposing pitchers this year (over .400 avg). He has been on the DL twice but nothing concerning long term. he can play all 3 OF positions well.

2) Colby Rasmus – With all the talk of teams being interesting in Rasmus and Mo stating he is not looking to deal Rasmus I will set the record straight. I don’t think Mo is going to sell low and no team will be willing to give a package of MLB upgrades in the rotation as well as 1-2 upper tier prospects to get a deal done. Maybe he isn’t untouchable right now but because the price “should” be very high no team is going to come close. Continue reading

Garcia’s extension and other notes

The big rumor out of St. Louis right now has nothing to do with potential trades, but rather retaining one of our own. No, not Albert Pujols. It seems that reports are circulating that the Cardinals and 25 year old left handed starter Jaime Garcia are closing on an four year extension.

Garcia was drafted in 2005 by the Cardinals and won the fifth starter’s role in spring training in 2010 after coming back from Tommy John surgery. He posted a 2.70 ERA over 28 starts and 163 innings. He also finished third in rookie of the year voting.

With Garcia being a potential “Super Two” during the offseason, one of a handful of players with more than two but less than three years of MLB service time who become arbitration eligible a year earlier. The four year deal would buy out his four years of arbitration and offer him two option years, according to the rumor. Something I’ve expected to happen this offseason, and very similar to the deal proposed to Adam Wainwright when he hit his arbitration years.

The rumored cost of the contract is a 4 year, $27.5 million deal with two option years. That puts the average annual value of the contract at $6.875 million per year. With the type of pitcher Garcia seems to be evolving into, this looks like a stellar deal for both the Cardinals and Garcia. The Cardinals lock up one of the top young pitchers in the game through the 2015 seasons and Garcia doesn’t have to worry about pitching for his next contract. Continue reading

Bell, Bartlett on Cardinals’ radar

According to the New York Post, the Cardinals are looking closely at the Padres’ Heath Bell and Jason Bartlett.

It’s well known that the Padres are willing to sell off players this year and have plenty of young reliever talent to sell. That’s something the Cardinals are in urgent need of, but will the benefits outweigh the costs?

From all reports, it appears that the Padres are interested in getting Cardinals top prospect Shelby Miller and more in return for Bell and Bartlett and that has a lot of Cardinals fans (and I hope Cardinals management) balking at the deal.

Miller, 20, was the Cardinals first round draft pick in 2009 and was the #13 prospect in all of baseball according to Baseball American’s annual top prospects list. He was also by far, the Cardinals top prospect. In his 5 starts since being promoted to Double-A Springfield, Miller has a 1.69 ERA in 32 innings with a 1.062 WHIP. In what many call the toughest jump in the minor leagues, from Single-A to Double-A, Miller has dominated more than he has at any other level.

Who are the Cardinals looking at?
Continue reading