Tag Archives: Roy Oswalt

Carpenter shut down

Just as St. Louis Cardinals fans thought we were going to get our twin aces back, they’re gone just like that. Last year it was Adam Wainwright needing Tommy John surgery. This time, it’s Chris Carpenter who has been shut down indefinitely with no current timetable for a return.

A couple weeks ago Carpenter was diagnosed with a bulging cervical disc. That’s in the neck and it can cause stiffness, pain, and numbness in your arms. For a pitcher, that’s problematic. As soon as I heard, I expected it would easily set him back at least a month in his preparations for the season. Since then he has been being treated by the team and had a limited throwing schedule. It appears that today the team decided he wasn’t making enough progress and shut him down. He has now returned to St. Louis for further tests, including potential nerve damage.

What’s scary for Cardinals’ fans is that Carpenter dealt with nerve issues before, during the 2007 and 2008 seasons where he made a total of 5 starts between the two years. Is this a major issue that will take the entire season to rectify or will he be back in April or May? We hope to find that out over the next week or two.

What will this mean for the Cardinals going forward?
Continue reading

On Oswalt and McClellan

Unless you’re a Cardinals fan that lives under a rock, you’ve heard the recent rumors relating to Roy Oswalt and Kyle McClellan. To catch you up, the Cardinals and Oswalt were reportedly very close to an agreement this past weekend, with a couple reporters calling the signing “imminent.” Of course, since the St. Louis scene wasn’t all over the rumor, I questioned it’s accuracy. And now, just over the last days or so, the St. Louis Cardinals are actively shopping Kyle McClellan, purportedly to get a roster spot and an extra $2.5 million of salary room so that they can increase their offer to Oswalt.

Now, Oswalt’s agent said within the last couple weeks that he would not be a reliever this year. That means he likely has more than one team interested in him to pitch out of the rotation. That’s where he’s been successful in the past, and I wouldn’t want to sign him as a reliever anyway, there is no guarantee a successful starter can adjust to the differences coming out of the bullpen. Which is also another reason against moving Westbrook to the bullpen.

As I sat and thought about these moves last night I’m confused. I cannot for the life of me figure out the cost-to-benefit analysis on this move. You’re trading away 27-year-old Kyle McClellan, who was one of the best middle relievers in major league baseball in 2010, his last season pitching solely out of the bullpen, to add a 34-year-old sixth starter who has had back problems off-and-on for the last few years, culminating last year where he only made 23 starts.

It seems like the 2012 Cardinals are banking hard on injury prone players and praying they remain healthy. They gave $14 million to Rafael Furcal, $26 million to Carlos Beltran, and now seem to be on the verge of giving Roy Oswalt somewhere in the $7-10 million range. These signings all sound great… if it were 2004.

Here are three reasons against signing Roy Oswalt.

First, the cost-to-benefit analysis doesn’t work out for the Cardinals. There was an excellent post at Viva El Birdos yesterday talking about Oswalt replacing Westbrook in the rotation or the use of a six man rotation. If you don’t feel like reading all of that, what his analysis eventually showed is that replacing Jake Westbrook with Roy Oswalt would theoretically result in a net gain of 13 fewer runs allowed, basically what ultimately boils down to just about 1 win over the course of a season. So basically the Cardinals look to be trying to spend $7-10 million for 1 more win.

Many Cardinals’ fans aren’t happy with Westbrook and would be happy to trade him for a bucket of balls. Westbrook, for some reason, had the worst season of his career, posting a 4.66 ERA but still 12 wins. However, in the second half he posted a 3.89 ERA. He struggled most of the season for sure. For what reason, we don’t know, but it’s safe to say that most fans were expecting the 3.48 ERA Jake Westbrook we saw at the end of 2010 when we traded for him. So to get the Westbrook we got was a shock. Something to remember is that Westbrook is likely to be better this year.

And I’m back to my statements of last offseason where we got rid of a couple players who failed to perform in 2010 but had previously had success for a couple of players who failed to perform in 2010 but had previously had success. If we’re going to be crossing our fingers that someone suddenly becomes productive again why all the shake up?

But that doesn’t stop many of us fans from going all googly-eyed about the idea of Roy Oswalt in the rotation. He has the sexy name that everyone wants, but it doesn’t seem worth it.

Second, you have to ask yourself: Is Roy Oswalt better than Jake Westbrook?

If you’re asking for 32 starts from both and they give them to you, Oswalt is going to be the better pitcher. However, when you look at the whole of the situation: Oswalt’s back, Westbrook’s no trade clause, a full rotation already… I’ll take Westbrook because it’s a better use of the organization’s money.

Many fans defend the idea saying Roy Oswalt could be the Lance Berkman of 2012. How many times does lightning strike the same place? How many times do you win on two consecutive pulls of the slot machine? How often will a roulette wheel turn up 17 twice in a row? To expect someone to come out of a perceived nowhere and put up a season like Lance Berkman did last year is naive. Could it happen? Yes, but it is exceptionally unlikely.

And third, it’s easy to sit here and say sign Oswalt, move Westbrook to the bullpen or trade him. However, you have to ask yourself what is the impact of the move on the locker room’s makeup? What if Westbrook isn’t happy about his demotion out of the rotation? He was willing to move to the bullpen in the playoffs for the team, and appropriately so because he was the team’s least successful starter in 2011. I think he understands that, but he’ll want the chance to show he can still be a successful starting pitcher. An unhappy player can easily poison a locker room and a poisoned locker room won’t be winning many championships.

And in summary, the question that we should be asking about the Cardinals’ interest in Roy Oswalt is what it means for the current rotation? The Cardinals have apparently also checked in on Edwin Jackson recently as well. That has me wondering why you’re looking for another starting pitcher when you already have five locked in under contract and a young Lance Lynn getting his starter’s arm back at Memphis (or that’s the plan anyway). Remember the news that Chris Carpenter might not be able to make his start in Game 1 of the World Series due to an elbow issue? Could there be injury concerns about one of the Cardinals’ starters that haven’t been made public?

That is a much larger concern.

Reports are now that Oswalt is visiting with Texas early this week. Personally, I think that’d be a great home for him to finish out his career and they could use a veteran pitcher to lead that rotation.

One thing is certain. After this offseason, I don’t know how anyone can call Bill DeWitt “cheap” anymore.

Notebook: November 28, 2011

The second edition of the offseason notebook comes to you with three stories. I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving break. I know mine was quite swamped trying to accomplish things, seeing family, and a couple of my good friends getting married.

Cardinals offer arbitration to Pujols and Jackson

The Cardinals announced on Wednesday that they had offered arbitration to Albert Pujols and Edwin Jackson while declining to offer the same to Rafael Furcal and Arthur Rhodes.

Both Pujols and Jackson are expected to decline arbitration. Pujols is expected to sign an extension with the Cardinals in the coming weeks. Jackson is likely looking for the opportunity to be in someone’s rotation next season after being the second-best Cardinals pitcher down the stretch. The interesting wrinkle is that the Cardinals continue to be linked to rumors of guys like Mark Buehrle and Roy Oswalt who are starting pitchers, despite the fact that the Cardinals have five starting pitchers already signed for next season and the two most likely to be dealt have no-trade clauses.

Declining to offer arbitration to Furcal and Rhodes is interesting, but expected. The Cardinals have been interested in Furcal, but GM John Mozeliak has said that he’s okay letting Tyler Greene get an extended look going into next season. Furcal is also said to be looking for a 2-3 year contract, which he’s unlikely to get from the Cardinals. The longer this goes on, the more I expect that Furcal is not in the Cardinals’ plans or are a part of their Plan B if they do not bring back Albert Pujols.

The fifth Cardinals player eligible for arbitration, Octavio Dotel, won’t be offered arbitration either. However, because Dotel was one of the players changed from a Type A to Type B free agent as a result of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, the Cardinals will get guaranteed compensation for him if he signs with another team that isn’t dependent on the arbitration offer.

Spring Training Schedule announced

The Cardinals announced their Spring Training schedule on Wednesday now. They will once again be in Jupiter, Florida, sharing the Roger Dean Stadium complex with the Miami Marlins, with whom the Cardinals will debut the Marlins’ new stadium with on April 4th.

The important date is February 18th, 2012, when the Pitchers & Catchers are scheduled to report. Then on February 23rd position players are due to report. Their 30 game schedule will begin on March 5th against the Miami Marlins.

Cardinals increase ticket prices for 2012

Following a winning year, teams increase ticket prices. Following a losing year, teams increase beer prices. Or so the saying goes.

The Cardinals revealed that they have slightly increased ticket prices an average of 3 percent per ticket. At $31.17 per ticket, the Cardinals had the 8th highest average ticket price in the major leagues, according to ticketnews.com.

The Cardinals had an attendance of nearly 3.1 million people this season. With an average price of $31.17 per ticket and an average of a 3% increase, that means an extra 94 cents per ticket. If they match their 2011 attendance figures that works out to be roughly an extra $2.9 million in revenue for the Cardinals. Many fans have expressed a willingness to pay more for a ticket if it meant bringing back Albert Pujols.